Nigeria’s latest economic growth figures are encouraging, but more evidence is needed before the country can confidently be said to be on a sustainable recovery path, a public finance and governance expert, Benjamin Ekeyi, has said.
Ekeyi gave the assessment while speaking with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja, following the release of the country’s second-quarter 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s real GDP expanded by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent recorded during the corresponding quarter of 2025.
In nominal terms, the economy recorded a GDP of N119.29 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, representing an 18.43 per cent increase from the N100.73 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.
Despite the improvement, Ekeyi said the figures should be interpreted cautiously. He explained that a sustained economic recovery would require growth to remain strong over several quarters and become increasingly driven by productivity, private investment, manufacturing, agriculture and infrastructure.
He identified Nigeria’s continued exposure to fluctuations in crude oil prices and production as one of the major risks to the growth outlook.
According to him, the latest expansion has also not yet translated into sufficient improvements in the daily economic conditions of many Nigerians.
Ekeyi described the situation as a gap between economic growth and household welfare, noting that improvements in headline economic indicators do not necessarily result in immediate relief for citizens.
He pointed to persistent challenges including poverty, food insecurity, inflation, expensive transportation, weak real wages, unemployment and increased operating costs for businesses.
The expert said economic performance should therefore be judged not only by GDP figures but also by whether Nigerians are securing jobs, earning better incomes, accessing affordable food and experiencing a reduction in poverty.
Oil Remains a Key Risk
Ekeyi noted that improved oil-sector performance contributed significantly to the Q2 growth figures.
He said crude oil production increased to approximately 1.72 million barrels per day in the second quarter, compared with about 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026.
However, he warned that lower international oil prices, production disruptions and insecurity in oil-producing communities could reverse some of the gains and place pressure on government revenue.
Beyond the oil industry, Ekeyi expressed concern about the relatively weaker performance of the industrial sector.
He noted that industrial growth stood at 3.96 per cent in Q2 2026, compared with 7.46 per cent during the same quarter of the previous year.
He argued that stronger industrial and manufacturing activity would be essential if Nigeria is to generate jobs on a large scale and establish a more resilient economic foundation.
Government Urged to Support Job-Creating Sectors
Ekeyi called for greater investment in sectors capable of absorbing Nigeria’s expanding workforce.
He identified agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, construction, digital services and the creative industry as areas that could contribute significantly to employment creation and inclusive growth.
“GDP growth without employment growth will not adequately address the welfare problem,” he said.
He also advocated increased investment in agriculture through irrigation, improved farm inputs, mechanisation, storage facilities, rural infrastructure and better security.
For businesses, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturers, he recommended measures aimed at lowering operating costs.
These, he said, should include more reliable electricity, efficient transportation systems, accessible credit and a stable regulatory environment.
Social Protection and Economic Stability
The expert further urged the government to strengthen social protection programmes to shield vulnerable households from the effects of ongoing economic adjustments.
He recommended combining cash transfers with interventions covering food security, healthcare, education, affordable transportation and employment opportunities.
On government revenue, Ekeyi advised the authorities to broaden the tax base, improve compliance and tackle leakages instead of relying mainly on higher tax burdens for existing taxpayers.
He also called for continued efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market, control inflation, rebuild external reserves and maintain confidence in monetary policy.
According to him, stronger reserves and improved external resilience have provided some support for the economy, but maintaining macroeconomic stability will remain crucial to preserving the recovery.
Ekeyi stressed that Nigeria’s economic progress should ultimately be measured by its impact on ordinary citizens.
He said the real indication of a successful recovery would be sustained GDP expansion accompanied by more employment opportunities, improved household incomes, lower food costs and a meaningful reduction in poverty.
